24 Hours After Zachary

At least 5.0 million customers are without power between the North Carolina Outer Banks and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Many major roads and highways are impassable due to downed power lines, trees and other debris. The Governors of Maryland and Virginia have restricted road access to those with immediate public health and safety purposes. Widespread wireless telecommunications outages have emerged as loss of power has exceeded battery support and many towers have been damaged. Fuel is in short supply.

Hurricane Zachary has moved off the Bay and is quickly losing energy over Central Pennsylvania, moving slowly to the Northeast with heavy rains. The Susquehanna River is easily expected to exceed its previous historic high floods.

Catastrophic Structural Damage

Major loss of power, communications and transportation

The warm waters of Chesapeake Bay kept Hurricane Zachary highly energized as it moved north. Sustained winds continued at or above 100 miles per hour. Interacting with the surrounding terrain increases atmospheric turbulence which produced wind guests of above 130 mph. Forward motion of the hurricane slowed to less than seven miles per hour. Up to 14 inches of rain was measured across the region, storm surge exceeded 16 feet at Havre de Grace (MD) and Curtis Bay (Baltimore Harbor). Most of the Naval Academy is flooded, as is Pratt Street in Baltimore. Downed trees, utility poles and other debris make many roads impassable, especially in densely populated suburbs between Washington DC and the Annapolis.

Power Overview

In the shaded zone (left) over 90 percent of customers are without commercial electricity. A 90 percent restoration level is unlikely to be achieved for ten or more days.

Wireless Overview

In the shaded area (below) over 90 percent of wireless towers are non-operational due to lack of electricity or physical damage.

Coastal Flooding

Storm surge is variable across terrain and time. But in the narrow inlets of the Chesapeake bay storm surge can be amplified. A Bay-wide average of 16 feet exceeds 25 feet in some locations.

Road Closures

Numerous road closures have been reported across the region. Below is an impact map for Baltimore and Harford counties in Maryland. The RED indicates actual road closures during Hurricane Sandy (much less impact than Zachary). The BLUE indicates projected flooding for a CAT-2 Hurricane.

Very High Impact Zones

A combination of serious physical effects, long-term infrastructure damage and population density can help identify Very High Impact Zones. In the aftermath of Zachary the Hampton Roads metropolitan region and the Baltimore region extending south into St. Mary’s County certainly qualify.

Fuel Overview

Even prior to Hurricane Zachary there were spot shortages caused by reduced availability of Gulf Coast refined product and hoarding.  While release of fuel from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the sourcing of refined product from Europe helped a great deal, the supply situation remains 25-to-30 percent below typical.

Zachary has caused further sourcing problems by prompting the controlled shut down of all refining along the Delaware River and through the loss of power to most major fuel distribution centers and retail operations in the region.  The Colonial and Plantation pipelines are not operating north of Raleigh NC.

Even where electricity is available, resupply of refined petroleum product now largely depends on overland transport from sources West of the Alleghenies, New York, or New England.

Lack of supply is especially acute along the I-95 corridor extending from Southern New Jersey to Richmond, Virginia. It is unclear how quickly even the immediate pre-storm supply capacity can be restored.

What more do you need to know?  Can you derive from this overview the likely condition of your own operations and resources?  If not, please ask.  Please also access the Comment Function below to answer the questions listed.  Please be on the lookout for an email to provide the call-in and access number for a 3:30 teleconference.